Commodity Tips By Experts

Shreekant Jha, Managing Director at PJ Commodity Ventures feels that crude has started coming down and it is very close to the levels we were talking about which is Rs 5,000 per barrel. So he suggests hanging on to the short positions and perhaps book profits around Rs 5,000 per barrel levels. He says, “It is weak and the break of Rs 5,000 per barrel should see a fresh move on the downside.”

For intraday trade, Reena Walia, Senior Research Analyst - International Commodities at Angel Broking expects lead prices to come under pressure. She recommends selling the MCX lead May contract around Rs 108 per kilogram levels. “A stop loss can be applied around Rs 109 per kilogram and on the downside we are targeting Rs 106.50 per kilogram for today’s trade” she adds.

Dipen Shah, Business Head of Stayvan.com thinks that silver prices are consolidating at these levels and he sees a huge upside on the prices once USD 29 is crossed on COMEX. Similarly, he believes on MCX also Rs 54,000 per kilogram is acting as good support for silver prices and any dips near Rs 54,400 per kilogram should be used for buying with a stop loss of Rs 54,200 per kilogram for a target of Rs 54,800 per kilogram.

Ashish Kyal, Head of research at Commtrendz reckons that sharp rise in US dollar against basket of currencies over past one month is bearish for base metals. So he advocates selling copper on rallies to Rs 428 per kilogram with a stop loss of Rs 431 per kilogram and a target of around Rs 423 per kilogram.

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Crude Oil and Natural gas report

Crude Oil

WTI Light sweet crude oil future prices are trading in a positive trend both in electronic platform and MCX, India. Declining inventory report released by API and expectation of falling inventory in today’s DOE report is
supporting oil price movement. Gasoline inventory is expected to remain unchanged, whereas Distillates is expected to decline by 1000K barrels. Tropical storm Tomas became tropical depression, still expecting Most of the Asian equity market closed in a negative note, whereas a positive trend can be seen in European market movement. Dollar index has been erased its intraday gain .PMI services data for the month of October resulted positive for the UK economy. In the evening, most of the economic releases are expected to have positive impact on commodity market movement. However, we may expect crude oil prices to trade in a positive trend,
ahead of economic releases and actual inventory data releases in the evening.

Natural Gas 

Natural gas are trading in a positive trend in the MCX, whereas a flat trading is seen in the electronic platform.Strorage data expectation has been declined from the prior data, which also supports price movement. National hurricane centre has reported about tropical storm Tomas, which became tropical depression still expecting to restrengthen.In the evening, most of the economic releases are expected to have positive impact on economy. Thus, we may expect natural gas prices to trade steadily, ahead of economic releases in the evening.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas - evening Updates for Today

Crude Oil

WTI light sweet crude oil futures are trading in a positive trend both in MCX and electronic platform. The 17th named Atlantic tropical storm Richard is expected to intensify and may become a hurricane, as per the NHC.Thus, oil prices are trading in a rising trend, though dollar index is appreciating and equity market are in
lower side. Oil futures are also taking cues from depreciating Indian rupee by 25 paisa. There are no major economic releases in the day ahead. However, we may expect oil prices to trade in a higher range in the evening session.

Natural Gas

Natural gas future contracts are also trading in a positive trend in MCX, might have taken cues from international price movement. As per NHC the tropical storm Richard is expected to become a hurricane in couple of days, which may hamper supply and production channel. Dollar index is in a rising trend, whereas European equities are in a lower trend. There are no major economic triggers in the evening session. However, we may expect gas prices to trade in a higher range on the back of tropical storm threat.

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DEBT CRISIS EFFECT- Crude Oil Falls

Crude oil futures pared previous gains fell almost 1% below $76 on renewed doubts of sovereign debt crisis in Euro area backed by stronger dollar and weak equity indices. The premium over NYMEX WTI to ICE Brent narrowed to $2 as ICE Brent reported decline on Euro Zone debt problem. Natural gas futures traded steadied near $3.800 after falling on yesterday trade on moderate weather forecasts followed by an expiry in NYMEX October contract. NYMEX Crude oil has important resistance at $78, support at $72.


MCX Crude oil (Oct) has resistance at ` 3390, support at 3510.

MCX Natural gas (Oct) has resistance at 184, support at 176.  

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