Commodity Market Highlights-
Gold prices were volatile in the international market. Dollar trimmed its earlier gains on US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s remarks that major currencies were roughly in alignment. MCX gold prices are on recovery path paring losses of earlier sessions. Demand is expected to rise as festival season is approaching. Copper climbed down in London as China’s growth slowed down in the third quarter. China’s GDP grew at a rate of 9.6 per cent in the third quarter compared to 10.3 per cent growth it achieved in the second quarter. Oil prices saw red after settling higher on Wednesday as dollar strengthened and on Chinese data. EIA natural gas storage change data scheduled to release today is seen down. G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Korea from 22-23 Oct is on focus now. As for today markets will look upon US jobs data and Euro Zone consumer confidence data. After the unexpected rise to 462K, it is expected to decline this time.
Commodity Intraday Technical-
MCX Gold-
That yesterday’s sporadic attempts to scale higher, have NOT succeeded in triggering short covering rallies is suggestive of probable withdrawal from the “bulls”. Within this construct, a feeble rise towards 19610 is possible before long liquidation pressure emerges. In that case, expect a steep fall towards the 8th Oct-low of 19317. Alternatively, if the initial upsides succeed in a direct rise above 19610, expect another spurt till 19700, a level crucial for deciding the broad trend.
Silver-
The “buy on dips” strategy favoured in the morning report is shaping well. However, such upside attempts are unlikely to gain strength unless above 35900. It would be important for prices to stay above 35600 to retain the day’s positive bias. Else, expect prices to drift lower, and retest yesterday's low of 35360. Broad trend now looks to be south bound towards 34800-32400, and it would require a close above 36900-37000 to force a shift from this perspective.
Copper-
The range anticipated in the morning has held well with a positive bias, though a brief penetration below 371.5 caused a few panic moments. The pattern is still not directional yet, suggestive of turns lower from 374.5 and 377.5. Broad picture continues to point towards 381/390 while above 360.
CRUDE Oil-
A direct rise above 3665 region yesterday, has softened the recent bearish bias. Favoured view expects a rise towards 3745/77 as long as 3653 region holds. However, watchout for congestion points of 3790 and 3715, which if not cleared, could rekindle weakness.
Nickel
A close above 1040 yesterday, has atleast temporariliy delayed the anticipated bearish plunge towards 1020/990. The rise today from 1054 anticipated in our morning report is evolving on anticipated lines, but watch out for 1068/75 region, which is required to be broken for sustenance of uptrend. Favoured view also expects the same to hold for the day.
Natural Gas-
After last two days of feeble rise, the trend is neutral now, but a break of 157 could resume the short term upside towards 160. Broad trend continues to point down towards 149. MCX’s life time low was 118.6 hit in September 2009.
| Commodity | R3 | R2 | R1 | Pivot | S1 | S2 | S3
|
| Gold MCX DEC | 19686 | 19620 | 19590 | 19550 | 19520 | 19480 | 19420 |
| Silver MCX DEC | 36386 | 36040 | 35880 | 35690 | 35540 | 35350 | 35000 |
| Copper MCX Nov | 381 | 377 | 375.5 | 373 | 371.50 | 369 | 365 |
| CRUDE Oil MCX Nov | 3723 | 3695 | 3680 | 3665 | 3647 | 3626 | 3579 |
| Nickel MCX Oct | 1086 | 1074 | 1069 | 1061 | 1057 | 1048 | 1036 |
| Nat Gas OCT | 162.30 | 159.6 | 158 | 157 | 155.40 | 154.50 | 151.80 |
8:02 PM
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